Demand Forecast and Logistics Optimization for Ipiranga

Demand and Logistics Forecast

Predictive analysis of storage needs at fuel distribution bases.

Context

We developed a Data Product focused on predictive analysis of storage/tankage needs at fuel distribution bases. This solution enables informed decision-making regarding infrastructure investments.

Challenge

Statistical models based on data up to 2019 resulted in outdated projections, which compromised the accuracy of strategic decisions and tankage capacity. The variability in stock policies affected replenishment calculations, highlighting the need for more in-depth analysis for decisions about new tanks and operations.

Strategic Decision Needs

Inconsistencies in stock management could lead to under- or overestimation of tankage demand, impacting operational efficiency.

Additionally, the need for strategic decisions regarding the construction of new tanks, fuel swaps between tanks, and changes in operating hours required in-depth analysis.

Our strategy

Our service is designed to provide a team of dedicated specialists to turn your challenges into opportunities.

1

We collected and analyzed historical data on Replenishment Times and Average Outputs, recalculating relevant statistics for a more accurate understanding of variability and central trends.

2

We reviewed stock policies at each base, adjusted replenishment time calculations as needed, and evaluated tank configuration models for strategic decisions.

3

Simulations were conducted to determine the feasibility of building new tanks, swapping fuel between tanks, or extending operating hours.

4

The analysis results were integrated into the Tankage Requirement Dashboard, and all data inputs were updated with the new statistical models, considering stock policies and tank turnover calculations.

Measurable Impacts and Results

Updated statistical models provided more accurate forecasts of fuel movement;

Analysis of stock policies ensured that replenishment time calculations were aligned with the specific practices of each base;

The study of tank configuration provided valuable insights for strategic decisions about tank construction, fuel swaps, and operations;

The Tankage Requirement Dashboard was updated, reflecting changes in forecasts, stock policies, and strategic decisions, offering an integrated and up-to-date view of tankage needs.